Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $886,800$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{906,750.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 141.5)}}\) (asimptote \(906,750.1\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $88,743$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,039.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 123.6)}}\) (asimptote \(89,039.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $51,118$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,575,177$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,482,769.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 153.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,482,769.2\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $224,889$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,556.4}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 94.5)}}\) (asimptote \(217,556.4\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,943,632$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $128,515$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{131,181.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 145.0)}}\) (asimptote \(131,181.8\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,628$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,707.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 142.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,707.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,325$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $92,724$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{92,269.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 144.3)}}\) (asimptote \(92,269.0\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,617$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,705.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 134.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,705.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $52,241$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $216,051$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185,885.3}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 109.4)}}\) (asimptote \(185,885.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,969$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,177.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,177.3\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,108$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $103,088$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,778.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 195.4)}}\) (asimptote \(127,778.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,282$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,659.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 191.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,659.2\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39,769$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $124,018$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,973.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.0)}}\) (asimptote \(126,973.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,220$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,766.9}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 146.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,766.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,445$ on 2020-10-24
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $104,632$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,540.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 136.8)}}\) (asimptote \(102,540.2\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,609$ on 2020-10-24
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,452.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 115.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,452.5\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,143$ on 2020-10-24