Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Mexico
  • US
  • Panama
  • Honduras
  • Canada
  • Costa Rica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Guatemala
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • El Salvador
  • Trinidad and Tobago

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $886,800$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{906,750.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 141.5)}}\) (asimptote \(906,750.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $88,743$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,039.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 123.6)}}\) (asimptote \(89,039.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $51,118$ on 2020-10-24

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,575,177$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,482,769.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 153.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,482,769.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $224,889$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,556.4}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 94.5)}}\) (asimptote \(217,556.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,943,632$ on 2020-10-24

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $128,515$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{131,181.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 145.0)}}\) (asimptote \(131,181.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,628$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,707.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 142.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,707.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,325$ on 2020-10-24

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $92,724$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{92,269.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 144.3)}}\) (asimptote \(92,269.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,617$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,705.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 134.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,705.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $52,241$ on 2020-10-24

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $216,051$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185,885.3}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 109.4)}}\) (asimptote \(185,885.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,969$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,177.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,177.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,108$ on 2020-10-24

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $103,088$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,778.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 195.4)}}\) (asimptote \(127,778.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,282$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,659.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 191.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,659.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39,769$ on 2020-10-24

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $124,018$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,973.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.0)}}\) (asimptote \(126,973.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,220$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,766.9}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 146.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,766.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,445$ on 2020-10-24

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $104,632$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,540.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 136.8)}}\) (asimptote \(102,540.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,609$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,452.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 115.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,452.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,143$ on 2020-10-24

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

El Salvador recovered 71%
Dominican Republic recovered 45%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 44%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $32,585$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,102.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 126.0)}}\) (asimptote \(31,102.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $944$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{918.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 124.6)}}\) (asimptote \(918.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,383$ on 2020-10-24

Trinidad and Tobago⮸

Population $1,399,488$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,503$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,529.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 181.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,529.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $105$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 179.6)}}\) (asimptote \(116.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,380$ on 2020-10-24